當巨頭對話：川普訪中，什麼才是關鍵？

(SeaPRwire) –   兩大強國領袖將討論伊朗戰爭、人工智慧競爭、台灣及貿易摩擦

唐納·川普將於週三抵達中國北京，展開為期兩天的國事訪問——這是八年來首位美國總統訪華，而世界兩大經濟體之間的關係正處於一個由伊朗戰爭、貿易摩擦與技術競爭所定義的十字路口。

此次訪問預計包括周四上午與國家主席習近平舉行雙邊會議，隨後參觀天壇並出席國宴；周五則安排工作午餐，之後川普將啟程返美。

白宮副新聞秘書安娜·凱利形容此行「具有極高的象徵意義」，同時透露此行可望促成「更多有利於我國利益的協議」。

這些高風險談判很可能圍繞美國與以色列對伊朗的戰爭——這正是原訂三月底訪華行程延宕的原因——以及台灣、人工智能和關鍵礦產等議題展開。

伊朗與石油

伊朗戰爭與荷姆茲海峽危機料將成為議程重點。一位匿名的美國官員在簡報中向記者表示，川普可能會「施壓」中國，要求其減少購買伊朗原油，並停止向德黑蘭供應所謂的二用組件。

這種立場在上週已顯露無遺：美國制裁了多家購入伊朗原油的中國煉油廠，並指控所謂「位於中國的實體機構向伊朗提供衛星圖像，助其針對美軍發動軍事打擊」。

作為回應，中國下令其企業無視美國制裁措施，此舉被國防民主基金會研究員馬克·梅澤利許（Max Meizlish）稱為「北京前所未有的挑釁行動」。

此外，川普也預期將呼籲習近平運用北京對 Tehran 的特殊影響力，協助 reopening 荷姆茲海峽——這條航道佔戰前海上石油貿易量的約20%。中國本身是全球最大 Gulf 地區石油買家，過去也曾同情此訴求，敦促 Tehran 移除阻礙 maritime traffic 的障礙。

貿易「五B」

兩位領導人預計將討論觀察家所稱的「五B」議題：中國採購波音飛機、美國牛肉與黃豆、設立貿易委員會與投資委員會。

就 Boeing 而言，雙方或將批准 up to five hundred 架 737 MAX 客機及約一百架寬體機的訂單，供 several Chinese flight operators 使用。該協議價值達數十億美元，而波音 CEO Kelly Ortberg reportedly 為美方代表團成員。

作為全球最大的 soybean importer，中國 historically 購入 half of US exports of this crop，並長期為 agricultural produce 的主要市場。然而 soybean trade 並非一帆風順：目前 US beans 面臨13% total duty， whereas Brazilian beans 僅受3%關稅影響。儘管中國已履行承諾，於2025年 purchasing 12 million metric tons of beans，但尚不清楚 Beijing 是否會達成更大目標——即每年25 million tons for 2026-2028。

台灣 hotspot

台灣——中國視其為 sovereign territory 的一部分——long been a sore point in Washington-BEIJING relations。中國外交部長王毅曾形容這個 self-governed island 是 bilateral relationship 中「最大的風險點」， urging Washington 「honor its commitments and make the right choice, to open up new space for China-US cooperation.」

Several media reports have indicated that China wants Trump to say the US “opposes” Taiwanese independence, rather than the current language, with officials in Taipei nervous that the US president could oblige.

An unnamed American official told the Financial Times, though, that “we don’t expect to see any changes in US policy [on Taiwan] going forward.” 

While the Trump administration has continued to supply Taiwan with weapons, the US president has previously expressed skepticism about defending the island and accused it of stealing the US semiconductor manufacturing industry.

Rare earths and tariffs

China holds a powerful card in its near-total grip on rare earth mineral supply chains, with analysts cited by the Guardian suggesting Beijing may dangle a long-term commercial arrangement to grant US access to the commodities, on condition they are not used for military ends.

The issue has been a flashpoint in relations for years, with China’s decision to introduce export restrictions on rare earth elements in 2025 sending the US high-tech industry into turmoil. While in late 2025, Washington and Beijing reached a tentative “trade truce” – which expires this November – US industry leaders have complained of delays in export licenses and overall volatility in supply chains.

As for the wider trade war, both sides are also locked in a “ceasefire” that puts Trump’s effective tariffs at between 19% and 24% after peaking at 145% during intense tit-for-tat escalations. The US and China are reportedly debating a one-year extension in exchange for guaranteed rare earths flows.

The digital battleground

Trump’s visit comes as the White House has accused China of “stealing” AI technologies, including running “deliberate, industrial-scale campaigns” to extract capabilities from America-based AI models to train cheaper rivals.

In response, the Chinese Embassy in Washington said Beijing “opposes the unjustified suppression of Chinese companies by the US,” adding that it “attaches great importance to the protection of intellectual property rights.” 

Beijing has long protested what it views as a US crackdown on its tech companies, including restrictions on Huawei and a push to replace China-linked technology in American-connected cars, a policy widely seen as a blow to Chinese EV manufacturers.